Integrated Climate Forecasting System Targets Vulnerable Regions

Scientists at MIT and partner institutions are developing the first fully integrated system for forecasting climate impacts, supporting proactive decisions and guiding interventions in regions facing severe climate threats.

The Jameel Observatory–Climate Resilience Early Warning System Network (CREWSnet) focuses initially on southwest Bangladesh and Sudan, areas where climate change threatens millions through cyclones, heatwaves, flooding and food insecurity.

The observatory represents one of MIT’s five Climate Grand Challenges flagship projects, bringing together scientists and humanitarians from multiple institutions. Partners include the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab at MIT, BRAC, the International Water Management Institute and Sudan’s Agricultural Research Corporation.

Mohammed Abdul Latif Jameel co-founded the Jameel Observatory-CREWSnet through Community Jameel following a 2019 visit to Bangladesh. During that trip, a delegation led by Mohammed Abdul Latif Jameel met with BRAC leaders and learned firsthand about climate challenges facing people in southwest Bangladesh.

Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment

The observatory uses mid-century climate projections combined with analysis of local human systems to design interventions addressing multiple hazards. This integrated approach recognizes that communities face overlapping threats rather than isolated climate events.

Southwest Bangladesh exemplifies these compound risks. Over 30 million people live in a region vulnerable to cyclones that have repeatedly devastated communities. Between 2019 and 2021, multiple cyclones forced hundreds of thousands to flee, flooding agricultural land and contaminating drinking water with saltwater.

Extreme heat compounds cyclone risks. In 2024, heatwaves caused nationwide school closures in Bangladesh for two weeks. Some districts experienced six to eight weeks of closures due to combined impacts of heatwaves and flooding.

Professor Elfatih Eltahir, lead principal investigator of the Jameel Observatory-CREWSnet, described the innovation. “Bangladesh built a vast network of cyclone shelters that have been effective in protecting vulnerable population,” he said. “For the first time the Jameel Observatory-CREWSnet is introducing the concept of shelter from heatwaves as well as cyclones in southwest Bangladesh.”

The first Adaptation Fortress under construction in Satkhira district transforms an existing cyclone shelter into a dual-purpose facility. The structure features solar power generation and battery backup systems ensuring operation during extreme heat conditions when grid power may fail.

Rainwater harvesting capacity addresses water security during emergencies. Excess energy generated when air conditioning isn’t needed becomes available for community use, creating year-round utility rather than infrastructure sitting idle between emergencies.

Evidence-Based Design Through Community Engagement

The observatory has engaged extensively with local communities to understand their experiences, priorities and constraints. This participatory approach ensures interventions address actual needs rather than imposing external solutions.

Dr. Deborah Campbell, executive director of the Jameel Observatory-CREWSnet, emphasized the necessity. “Bangladesh is getting hotter and will experience more frequent and severe heatwaves, leaving many people very vulnerable to heat stress and lacking the resources to adapt,” she said.

Community members who will use Adaptation Fortresses during heat emergencies provided input during design phases. This feedback informed decisions about facility location, amenities, access protocols and community benefits during non-emergency periods.

The pilot fortress at Baradal Aftab Uddin collegiate school operates as a school throughout the year, serving as a cyclone shelter during government-declared emergencies and providing cooling relief during extreme heat events. Located within walking distance to the local market, health clinic and council building, it functions as a central community hub.

Performance evaluation will incorporate community surveys during heat season alongside operational feedback, energy meters and hyper-local weather data. This multi-metric assessment examines both technical function and actual community benefit.

Dr. Md Liakath Ali, principal investigator of the Jameel Observatory-CREWSnet at BRAC, described the partnership approach. “BRAC is proud to partner with the Jameel Observatory-CREWSnet in pioneering the Adaptation Fortress initiative, an important step toward protecting vulnerable communities from the growing risks of extreme heat in coastal Bangladesh,” he said.

Mohammed Abdul Latif Jameel emphasized the proactive dimension. “The Jameel Observatory-CREWSnet’s construction of this first pilot Adaptation Fortress marks a milestone for Bangladesh and the region,” he said. “It lays the foundation for a proactive response to cyclones and heat stress—emergencies that the team has projected will become frequent events, threatening the lives of millions in Bangladesh.”

Scaling Pathways and Policy Integration

If the pilot demonstrates effectiveness, the initiative could scale to 1,250 Adaptation Fortresses providing heatwave relief to half a million residents. Scaling would require substantial additional funding, government partnerships and manufacturing capacity for solar and cooling equipment.

A second pilot location has been selected at Satbaria high school in Jashore district. Multiple pilot sites enable comparison across different community contexts and building types, informing design optimization before larger-scale deployment.

BRAC’s involvement extends beyond implementation to policy engagement. “Alongside the pilot, we are committed to engaging policy makers so that future heat and climate risks are integrated into national planning processes,” Dr. Ali explained.

Policy integration proves essential for sustainable climate adaptation. Individual projects help specific communities but systemic change requires government planning, building codes, infrastructure standards and resource allocation reflecting climate projections.

The Jameel Observatory-CREWSnet’s forecasting capabilities provide data supporting policy decisions. Climate models project temperature increases, precipitation changes and extreme event frequencies decades into the future. These projections enable infrastructure planning accounting for future conditions rather than assuming historical climate patterns will continue.

At COP28 in Dubai, the Jameel Observatory-CREWSnet was selected as an innovation package by the Agricultural Innovation Mechanism for Scale, a joint initiative of the UAE government and the Gates Foundation. Chaired by Nobel laureate Professor Michael Kremer, AIM for Scale seeks partnership and investment into selected innovation packages.

This recognition could facilitate partnerships and funding enabling expansion beyond pilot phases. International climate finance mechanisms increasingly focus on adaptation rather than solely mitigation, creating potential funding sources for infrastructure protecting vulnerable communities.

Food Security Connections

Climate adaptation extends beyond physical infrastructure to agricultural systems and food security. The Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action in Nairobi, Kenya, launched in 2021 by Community Jameel with the University of Edinburgh, Save the Children, CGIAR International Livestock Research Institute and J-PAL.

The Jameel Observatory harnesses data science to monitor, forecast and enable early action against acute hunger and famine outbreaks in the face of climate change. Food insecurity often follows climate shocks like droughts or floods, creating humanitarian emergencies.

Early warning systems enable preemptive responses before crises fully develop. Anticipatory humanitarian action can prevent asset depletion, malnutrition and displacement when triggered by credible forecasts.

Mohammed Abdul Latif Jameel serves as an MIT Corporation life member, maintaining close connections to research developments. These relationships enable Community Jameel to identify promising research with potential for real-world impact in vulnerable communities.

The integrated approach across climate forecasting, infrastructure adaptation, food security monitoring and community engagement demonstrates how addressing climate change requires multiple interventions working synergistically rather than isolated technical solutions.

The Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab at MIT, co-founded in 2014, complements the observatory’s work. J-WAFS addresses water and food security issues through research and technology commercialization, tackling urbanization, climate change and rising populations.

Water availability proves critical for both agricultural production and human health. Climate change affects precipitation patterns, snowpack accumulation, groundwater recharge and water quality. Adaptation requires integrated water resource management accounting for these changing conditions.

The observatory’s work in Bangladesh and Sudan provides case studies for adaptation approaches potentially applicable in other climate-vulnerable regions. Lessons learned about community engagement, infrastructure design, forecasting accuracy and policy integration could inform similar initiatives across South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and other regions facing severe climate impacts.